World Cup

Round-of-32, the 90-minute result: eight models plus a calibrated blend, side by side.

Eight models + a calibrated blend, market-blind · forecast locked 2026-06-29

Market-blind — no betting line or market price is read at any point. We predict only each tie's 90-minute result: win, draw or loss; a draw counts as an outcome, and who then advances via extra time or penalties is not forecast. Eight models rate every tie and a multi-calibrated blend pools them into one published call. The already-played Canada–South Africa tie is left out; as each match finishes we score these calls in the open.

Full methodology: from data to forecast →

Match 1confidence · medium

🇧🇷BrazilvsJapan🇯🇵

Brazil to win in 90 min, ~51%

Brazil 51%Draw 33%Japan 16%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)444214

xG-corrected Elo393625

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo473023

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo403624

Tactical style-clash mElo453817

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)79210

Passing-network structure (random forest)69256

Stacked Ensemble433720

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published513316

BrazilDrawJapan

See the reasoning →

Match 2confidence · medium

🇩🇪GermanyvsParaguay🇵🇾

Germany to win in 90 min, ~47%

Germany 47%Draw 36%Paraguay 17%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)483814

xG-corrected Elo433621

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo453223

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo403624

Tactical style-clash mElo344026

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)62344

Passing-network structure (random forest)60355

Stacked Ensemble423721

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published473617

GermanyDrawParaguay

See the reasoning →

Match 3confidence · medium

🇳🇱NetherlandsvsMorocco🇲🇦

Netherlands to win in 90 min, ~46%

Netherlands 46%Draw 32%Morocco 22%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)343927

xG-corrected Elo443323

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo382933

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo443422

Tactical style-clash mElo293833

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)80191

Passing-network structure (random forest)573112

Stacked Ensemble443521

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published463222

NetherlandsDrawMorocco

See the reasoning →

Match 4confidence · low

🇨🇮Côte d'IvoirevsNorway🇳🇴

Norway to win in 90 min, ~41%

Côte d'Ivoire 29%Draw 30%Norway 41%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)323434

xG-corrected Elo162856

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo292843

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo172855

Tactical style-clash mElo173251

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)324127

Passing-network structure (random forest)501337

Stacked Ensemble433324

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published293041

Côte d'IvoireDrawNorway

See the reasoning →

Match 5confidence · high

🇫🇷FrancevsSweden🇸🇪

France to win in 90 min, ~68%

France 68%Draw 21%Sweden 11%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)69247

xG-corrected Elo67249

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo382537

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo68239

Tactical style-clash mElo80182

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)88111

Passing-network structure (random forest)82135

Stacked Ensemble493021

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published682111

FranceDrawSweden

See the reasoning →

Match 6confidence · low

🇲🇽MexicovsEcuador🇪🇨

Mexico to win in 90 min, ~38%

Mexico 38%Draw 34%Ecuador 28%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)284725

xG-corrected Elo263737

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo283240

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo293734

Tactical style-clash mElo65305

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)542422

Passing-network structure (random forest)332839

Stacked Ensemble413821

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published383428

MexicoDrawEcuador

See the reasoning →

Match 7confidence · low

🇧🇪BelgiumvsSenegal🇸🇳

Belgium to win in 90 min, ~44%

Belgium 44%Draw 37%Senegal 19%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)463816

xG-corrected Elo343828

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo343333

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo343828

Tactical style-clash mElo453916

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)63361

Passing-network structure (random forest)583111

Stacked Ensemble413920

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published443719

BelgiumDrawSenegal

See the reasoning →

Match 8confidence · medium

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandvsDR Congo🇨🇩

England to win in 90 min, ~58%

England 58%Draw 30%DR Congo 12%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)63289

xG-corrected Elo68239

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo502426

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo67249

Tactical style-clash mElo543115

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)49465

Passing-network structure (random forest)67285

Stacked Ensemble463222

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published583012

EnglandDrawDR Congo

See the reasoning →

Match 9confidence · medium

🇺🇸USAvsBosnia & Herzegovina🇧🇦

USA to win in 90 min, ~48%

USA 48%Draw 33%Bosnia & Herzegovina 19%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)513613

xG-corrected Elo493318

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo354223

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo453421

Tactical style-clash mElo513514

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)592417

Passing-network structure (random forest)502228

Stacked Ensemble433621

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published483319

USADrawBosnia & Herzegovina

See the reasoning →

Match 10confidence · medium

🇨🇭SwitzerlandvsAlgeria🇩🇿

Switzerland to win in 90 min, ~49%

Switzerland 49%Draw 33%Algeria 18%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)563113

xG-corrected Elo433324

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo413029

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo443323

Tactical style-clash mElo343729

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)63370

Passing-network structure (random forest)71245

Stacked Ensemble443521

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published493318

SwitzerlandDrawAlgeria

See the reasoning →

Match 11confidence · high

🇪🇸SpainvsAustria🇦🇹

Spain to win in 90 min, ~75%

Spain 75%Draw 20%Austria 5%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)76204

xG-corrected Elo672310

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo432235

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo662311

Tactical style-clash mElo503119

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)65314

Passing-network structure (random forest)38584

Stacked Ensemble463222

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published75205

SpainDrawAustria

See the reasoning →

Match 12confidence · low

🇵🇹PortugalvsCroatia🇭🇷

Portugal to win in 90 min, ~43%

Portugal 43%Draw 38%Croatia 19%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)464113

xG-corrected Elo403624

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo343333

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo383725

Tactical style-clash mElo364024

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)54460

Passing-network structure (random forest)58357

Stacked Ensemble413821

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published433819

PortugalDrawCroatia

See the reasoning →

Match 13confidence · high

🇦🇷ArgentinavsCape Verde🇨🇻

Argentina to win in 90 min, ~64%

Argentina 64%Draw 26%Cape Verde 10%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)70255

xG-corrected Elo77194

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo472726

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo77194

Tactical style-clash mElo77203

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)70264

Passing-network structure (random forest)523612

Stacked Ensemble463321

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published642610

ArgentinaDrawCape Verde

See the reasoning →

Match 14confidence · low

🇦🇺AustraliavsEgypt🇪🇬

A 90-minute draw is the likeliest result, ~38%

Australia 26%Draw 38%Egypt 36%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)284725

xG-corrected Elo373924

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo234136

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo383824

Tactical style-clash mElo274231

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)02080

Passing-network structure (random forest)153748

Stacked Ensemble374122

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published263836

AustraliaDrawEgypt

See the reasoning →

Match 15confidence · high

🇨🇴ColombiavsGhana🇬🇭

Colombia to win in 90 min, ~60%

Colombia 60%Draw 29%Ghana 11%

All nine forecasters, side by side

Dixon-Coles (Bayesian-shrunk)63307

xG-corrected Elo73225

PRODEGY split attack/defence Elo423028

Physical-decay dynamic-K Elo73225

Tactical style-clash mElo593011

Line-breaks & offers efficiency (gradient-boosted)67285

Passing-network structure (random forest)58375

Stacked Ensemble463321

Multi-calibrated 8-in-1published602911

ColombiaDrawGhana

See the reasoning →

Win / draw / loss probabilities only — no money, no odds, no market data. The published call is the multi-calibrated blend; the eight model rows show where the underlying methods agree and disagree. Scoring follows once the matches settle.