Predict RavenFrance to win in 90 min, ~68%
The evidence
France rate higher on form and results — 2063 vs 1712.
France create more — 1.92 vs 1.27 expected goals a game.
France give up less — 0.80 vs 1.80 expected goals against a game.
France keep the ball more — 49.9% vs 47.5% of the game.
France press higher up the pitch more often — 5.8% vs 4.2% of play.
Sweden break faster on the counter — 1.9% vs 1.7% of play.
Sweden sit deeper to defend more — 24.6% vs 16.7% of play.
France cover more ground at high speed — 5.8 km vs 5.3 km.
How the nine models read it
Blending all 8 models and correcting for known group-stage biases, France is the call here at about 68%.
Models’ consensus+38.6 pts → France
France are a clear favourite to beat Sweden (73% to win).
Attack vs defence+64.9 pts → France
France are the clear favourite to beat Sweden, winning roughly 71 times out of 100 to Sweden's 10.
Chance-creation form+4.6 pts → France
France and Sweden look evenly matched, with no side meaningfully on top.
Attack vs defence+32.7 pts → France
France is clearly the stronger side here with about a 72% chance to win, partly because the other side ran a heavier physical load and is likelier to tire.
Physical load−0.1 pts → Sweden
France is the clear favourite — its game style matches up well against Sweden.
Overall quality+47.0 pts → France
France are clear favourites to beat Sweden, mostly on cleaner attacking play.
Breaking through the defence
France is the clear favourite (87%) — its passing play is the harder one to break down.
Passing structure
Pulling every angle together, France is narrowly the side to back here, at about a 52% chance to win.
Model agreement+29.7 pts → France
Method
Market-blind: equal-weight linear (arithmetic) opinion pool of all 8 model views (seven base models + the stacked ensemble), then MCBoost multicalibration (alpha=0.15, 5 correction round(s)) learned on the group stage across overlapping style/strength subgroups, replayed on this fixture and bounded to within 12pp per outcome of the consensus, then a knockout 90-minute draw calibration (target ~31% draws, the 2022 Qatar knockout rate) lifting the draw on even ties. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.
Forecast locked 2026-06-29 — before any Round-of-32 match kicked off.
Market-blind: the eight model views are pooled into one consensus, then a light bias correction learned on the group stage is applied. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.