Predict RavenUSA to win in 90 min, ~48%
The evidence
USA rate higher on form and results — 1726 vs 1595.
USA create more — 1.44 vs 0.88 expected goals a game.
USA give up less — 1.40 vs 1.85 expected goals against a game.
USA keep the ball more — 52.3% vs 43.8% of the game.
USA press higher up the pitch more often — 6.3% vs 5.2% of play.
Bosnia & Herzegovina break faster on the counter — 1.6% vs 1.2% of play.
Bosnia & Herzegovina sit deeper to defend more — 25.2% vs 17.4% of play.
USA cover more ground at high speed — 6.5 km vs 5.4 km.
How the nine models read it
Blending all 8 models and correcting for known group-stage biases, United States is the call here at about 48%.
Models’ consensus+21.7 pts → USA
United States are a slight favourite to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina (58.5% to win).
Attack vs defence+43.1 pts → USA
United States are the clear favourite to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina, winning roughly 56 times out of 100 to Bosnia-Herzegovina's 20.
Chance-creation form+10.6 pts → USA
United States is clearly the stronger side here with about a 52% chance to win, partly because the other side ran a heavier physical load and is likelier to tire.
Physical load−0.5 pts → Bosnia & Herzegovina
United States is the slight favourite — its game style matches up well against Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Overall quality+28.8 pts → USA
United States are clear favourites to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina, mostly on cleaner attacking play.
Breaking through the defence
United States is the clear favourite (58%) — its passing play is the harder one to break down.
Passing structure
Pulling every angle together, United States is narrowly the side to back here, at about a 49% chance to win.
Model agreement+25.2 pts → USA
United States is the favourite, expected to generate the better scoring chances over 90 minutes.
Attack vs defence−16.8 pts → Bosnia & Herzegovina
Method
Market-blind: equal-weight linear (arithmetic) opinion pool of all 8 model views (seven base models + the stacked ensemble), then MCBoost multicalibration (alpha=0.15, 5 correction round(s)) learned on the group stage across overlapping style/strength subgroups, replayed on this fixture and bounded to within 12pp per outcome of the consensus, then a knockout 90-minute draw calibration (target ~31% draws, the 2022 Qatar knockout rate) lifting the draw on even ties. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.
Forecast locked 2026-06-29 — before any Round-of-32 match kicked off.
Market-blind: the eight model views are pooled into one consensus, then a light bias correction learned on the group stage is applied. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.