Predict RavenColombia to win in 90 min, ~60%
The evidence
Colombia rate higher on form and results — 1982 vs 1510.
Colombia create more — 1.72 vs 0.83 expected goals a game.
Colombia give up less — 0.74 vs 1.49 expected goals against a game.
Colombia keep the ball more — 52.9% vs 41.4% of the game.
Ghana press higher up the pitch more often — 4.8% vs 4.3% of play.
Ghana break faster on the counter — 2.2% vs 1.2% of play.
Ghana sit deeper to defend more — 25.2% vs 19.6% of play.
Ghana cover more ground at high speed — 5.2 km vs 4.9 km.
How the nine models read it
Blending all 8 models and correcting for known group-stage biases, Colombia is the call here at about 60%.
Models’ consensus+31.9 pts → Colombia
Colombia are a clear favourite to beat Ghana (68.5% to win).
Attack vs defence+61.4 pts → Colombia
Colombia are the clear favourite to beat Ghana, winning roughly 79 times out of 100 to Ghana's 6.
Chance-creation form+6.0 pts → Colombia
Colombia is the favourite, expected to generate the better scoring chances over 90 minutes.
Attack vs defence+14.7 pts → Colombia
Colombia is clearly the stronger side here with about a 79% chance to win, partly because the other side ran a heavier physical load and is likelier to tire.
Physical load
Colombia is the clear favourite — its game style matches up well against Ghana.
Overall quality+33.8 pts → Colombia
Colombia are clear favourites to beat Ghana, mostly on cleaner attacking play.
Breaking through the defence
Colombia is the clear favourite (63%) — its passing play is the harder one to break down.
Passing structure
Pulling every angle together, Colombia is narrowly the side to back here, at about a 50% chance to win.
Model agreement+27.0 pts → Colombia
Method
Market-blind: equal-weight linear (arithmetic) opinion pool of all 8 model views (seven base models + the stacked ensemble), then MCBoost multicalibration (alpha=0.15, 5 correction round(s)) learned on the group stage across overlapping style/strength subgroups, replayed on this fixture and bounded to within 12pp per outcome of the consensus, then a knockout 90-minute draw calibration (target ~31% draws, the 2022 Qatar knockout rate) lifting the draw on even ties. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.
Forecast locked 2026-06-29 — before any Round-of-32 match kicked off.
Market-blind: the eight model views are pooled into one consensus, then a light bias correction learned on the group stage is applied. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.