Predict RavenMexico to win in 90 min, ~38%
The evidence
Ecuador rate higher on form and results — 1938 vs 1875.
Ecuador create more — 1.76 vs 1.51 expected goals a game.
Mexico give up less — 0.72 vs 0.91 expected goals against a game.
Ecuador keep the ball more — 50.8% vs 49.1% of the game.
Mexico press higher up the pitch more often — 5.8% vs 5.0% of play.
Ecuador break faster on the counter — 1.4% vs 1.2% of play.
Ecuador sit deeper to defend more — 20.4% vs 19.2% of play.
Ecuador cover more ground at high speed — 5.7 km vs 5.4 km.
How the nine models read it
Blending all 8 models and correcting for known group-stage biases, Mexico is the call here at about 38%.
Models’ consensus+11.6 pts → Mexico
Mexico is the clear favourite — its game style matches up well against Ecuador.
Overall quality+43.4 pts → Mexico
Mexico are clear favourites to beat Ecuador, mostly on cleaner attacking play.
Breaking through the defence
Pulling every angle together, Mexico is narrowly the side to back here, at about a 48% chance to win.
Model agreement+23.6 pts → Mexico
Mexico are narrowly ahead to beat Ecuador (33.3% to win), though a tight low-scoring draw is very much in play (37.2%).
Attack vs defence+3.8 pts → Mexico
Ecuador are a slight favourite to beat Mexico, winning roughly 43 times out of 100 to Mexico's 31.
Chance-creation form+1.3 pts → Mexico
Ecuador is a slight favourite here with about a 40% chance to win, partly because the other side ran a heavier physical load and is likelier to tire.
Physical load
Ecuador is the favourite, expected to generate the better scoring chances over 90 minutes.
Attack vs defence+25.2 pts → Mexico
Ecuador is the slight edge (46%) — its passing play is the harder one to break down.
Passing structure
Method
Market-blind: equal-weight linear (arithmetic) opinion pool of all 8 model views (seven base models + the stacked ensemble), then MCBoost multicalibration (alpha=0.15, 5 correction round(s)) learned on the group stage across overlapping style/strength subgroups, replayed on this fixture and bounded to within 12pp per outcome of the consensus, then a knockout 90-minute draw calibration (target ~31% draws, the 2022 Qatar knockout rate) lifting the draw on even ties. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.
Forecast locked 2026-06-29 — before any Round-of-32 match kicked off.
Market-blind: the eight model views are pooled into one consensus, then a light bias correction learned on the group stage is applied. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.