Predict RavenSwitzerland to win in 90 min, ~49%
The evidence
Switzerland rate higher on form and results — 1891 vs 1772.
Switzerland create more — 1.84 vs 1.34 expected goals a game.
Switzerland give up less — 1.08 vs 1.72 expected goals against a game.
Algeria keep the ball more — 54.0% vs 52.6% of the game.
Switzerland press higher up the pitch more often — 6.2% vs 5.7% of play.
Switzerland break faster on the counter — 1.2% vs 0.9% of play.
Switzerland sit deeper to defend more — 17.6% vs 16.7% of play.
Switzerland cover more ground at high speed — 5.5 km vs 5.4 km.
How the nine models read it
Blending all 8 models and correcting for known group-stage biases, Switzerland is the call here at about 49%.
Models’ consensus+22.1 pts → Switzerland
Switzerland are a clear favourite to beat Algeria (62.2% to win).
Attack vs defence+47.2 pts → Switzerland
Switzerland are favoured to beat Algeria, winning roughly 49 times out of 100 to Algeria's 26.
Chance-creation form+6.5 pts → Switzerland
Switzerland is the favourite, expected to generate the better scoring chances over 90 minutes.
Attack vs defence+31.8 pts → Switzerland
Switzerland is clearly the stronger side here with about a 49% chance to win, partly because the other side ran a heavier physical load and is likelier to tire.
Physical load
Switzerland are clear favourites to beat Algeria, mostly on cleaner attacking play.
Breaking through the defence
Switzerland is the clear favourite (80%) — its passing play is the harder one to break down.
Passing structure
Pulling every angle together, Switzerland is narrowly the side to back here, at about a 49% chance to win.
Model agreement+25.1 pts → Switzerland
Switzerland and Algeria look evenly matched, with Switzerland a hair ahead on the day.
Overall quality+6.3 pts → Switzerland
Method
Market-blind: equal-weight linear (arithmetic) opinion pool of all 8 model views (seven base models + the stacked ensemble), then MCBoost multicalibration (alpha=0.15, 5 correction round(s)) learned on the group stage across overlapping style/strength subgroups, replayed on this fixture and bounded to within 12pp per outcome of the consensus, then a knockout 90-minute draw calibration (target ~31% draws, the 2022 Qatar knockout rate) lifting the draw on even ties. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.
Forecast locked 2026-06-29 — before any Round-of-32 match kicked off.
Market-blind: the eight model views are pooled into one consensus, then a light bias correction learned on the group stage is applied. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.