Predict RavenNorway to win in 90 min, ~41%
The evidence
Norway rate higher on form and results — 1914 vs 1695.
Norway create more — 1.71 vs 1.26 expected goals a game.
Côte d'Ivoire give up less — 1.19 vs 1.56 expected goals against a game.
Dead level — Côte d'Ivoire and Norway match up here.
Norway press higher up the pitch more often — 5.8% vs 4.3% of play.
Norway break faster on the counter — 1.7% vs 1.6% of play.
Norway sit deeper to defend more — 24.4% vs 21.4% of play.
Norway cover more ground at high speed — 5.9 km vs 5.5 km.
How the nine models read it
Côte d'Ivoire is the slight edge (54%) — its passing play is the harder one to break down.
Passing structure
Pulling every angle together, Côte d'Ivoire is narrowly the side to back here, at about a 46% chance to win.
Model agreement+19.5 pts → Côte d'Ivoire
Norway are narrowly ahead to beat Côte d'Ivoire (36.4% to win), though a tight low-scoring draw is very much in play (29.6%).
Attack vs defence−2.3 pts → Norway
Côte d'Ivoire are narrow favourites to beat Norway, mostly on cleaner attacking play.
Breaking through the defence
Blending all 8 models and correcting for known group-stage biases, Norway is the call here at about 41%.
Models’ consensus−1.7 pts → Norway
Norway are the clear favourite to beat Côte d'Ivoire, winning roughly 60 times out of 100 to Côte d'Ivoire's 17.
Chance-creation form−2.9 pts → Norway
Norway is the favourite, expected to generate the better scoring chances over 90 minutes.
Attack vs defence+3.4 pts → Côte d'Ivoire
Norway is clearly the stronger side here with about a 59% chance to win, partly because the other side ran a heavier physical load and is likelier to tire.
Physical load+0.2 pts → Côte d'Ivoire
Norway is the slight favourite — its game style matches up well against Côte d'Ivoire.
Overall quality−25.8 pts → Norway
Method
Market-blind: equal-weight linear (arithmetic) opinion pool of all 8 model views (seven base models + the stacked ensemble), then MCBoost multicalibration (alpha=0.15, 5 correction round(s)) learned on the group stage across overlapping style/strength subgroups, replayed on this fixture and bounded to within 12pp per outcome of the consensus, then a knockout 90-minute draw calibration (target ~31% draws, the 2022 Qatar knockout rate) lifting the draw on even ties. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.
Forecast locked 2026-06-29 — before any Round-of-32 match kicked off.
Market-blind: the eight model views are pooled into one consensus, then a light bias correction learned on the group stage is applied. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.