World Cup

Graded after the fact: our market-blind forecasts vs the market price at forecast time.

Elo simulation + Bayesian updates, never reading a market price · forecast date 2026-06-11

Accuracy64%46 / 72 matches

Return−10.7%132 bets

Brier Skill Score−7.7%>0 beats the market

Calibration6.7%lower is better

When we bet: skip if our number is close to the market, bet only when the gap is wide.

back = bet it happens · fade = bet it won't · a win pays the market's odds, a loss is −100%.

Top 3 by return

Top = ours, bottom = the market at forecast time; bold = actual result. Win / draw / loss are bet independently.

🇪🇸 Spain0 – 0Cape Verde 🇨🇻

OursMarket

Home win fade +952.6%Draw back +1392.5%Away win · no bet

🇵🇹 Portugal1 – 1DR Congo 🇨🇩

OursMarket

Home win fade +308.2%Draw back +506.1%Away win · no bet

🇧🇪 Belgium0 – 0Iran 🇮🇷

OursMarket

Home win fade +239%Draw back +412.8%Away win back −100%

Show the other 69

🇪🇨 Ecuador2 – 1Germany 🇩🇪

OursMarket

Home win back +387.8%Draw · no betAway win fade +129.9%

🇦🇺 Australia2 – 0Türkiye 🇹🇷

OursMarket

Home win back +471.4%Draw · no betAway win · no bet

🇹🇷 Türkiye3 – 2USA 🇺🇸

OursMarket

Home win back +166.7%Draw · no betAway win fade +62.6%

🇰🇷 South Korea2 – 1Czechia 🇨🇿

OursMarket

Home win back +181.7%Draw fade +46%Away win · no bet

🇨🇿 Czechia0 – 3Mexico 🇲🇽

OursMarket

Home win fade +25.8%Draw fade +36.1%Away win back +83.5%

🇲🇽 Mexico1 – 0South Korea 🇰🇷

OursMarket

Home win back +83.5%Draw fade +36.1%Away win fade +25.8%

🇹🇳 Tunisia0 – 4Japan 🇯🇵

OursMarket

Home win fade +19.8%Draw fade +36.1%Away win back +73.9%

🇭🇷 Croatia2 – 1Ghana 🇬🇭

OursMarket

Home win back +68.1%Draw fade +34.2%Away win fade +18.3%

🇹🇳 Tunisia1 – 3Netherlands 🇳🇱

OursMarket

Home win fade +15.6%Draw fade +29%Away win back +50.4%

🇨🇭 Switzerland4 – 1Bosnia & Herzegovina 🇧🇦

OursMarket

Home win back +65.3%Draw · no betAway win fade +19.8%

🇨🇴 Colombia1 – 0DR Congo 🇨🇩

OursMarket

Home win back +50.4%Draw fade +27.4%Away win · no bet

🇦🇷 Argentina2 – 0Austria 🇦🇹

OursMarket

Home win back +65.3%Draw · no betAway win · no bet

🇲🇽 Mexico2 – 0South Africa 🇿🇦

OursMarket

Home win back +43.9%Draw · no betAway win fade +11.7%

🇹🇷 Türkiye0 – 1Paraguay 🇵🇾

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw fade +43.9%Away win · no bet

🇦🇷 Argentina3 – 0Algeria 🇩🇿

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇧🇪 Belgium1 – 1Egypt 🇪🇬

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇧🇷 Brazil1 – 1Morocco 🇲🇦

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇨🇦 Canada6 – 0Qatar 🇶🇦

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇨🇻 Cape Verde0 – 0Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇪🇨 Ecuador0 – 0Curaçao 🇨🇼

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇩🇪 Germany2 – 1Côte d'Ivoire 🇨🇮

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia1 – 1Uruguay 🇺🇾

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇳🇱 Netherlands5 – 1Sweden 🇸🇪

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇳🇴 Norway1 – 4France 🇫🇷

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇳🇿 New Zealand1 – 3Egypt 🇪🇬

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇶🇦 Qatar1 – 1Switzerland 🇨🇭

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇺🇾 Uruguay2 – 2Cape Verde 🇨🇻

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇺🇾 Uruguay0 – 1Spain 🇪🇸

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇳🇱 Netherlands2 – 2Japan 🇯🇵

OursMarket

Home win fade +86.9%Draw · no betAway win back −100%

🇨🇴 Colombia0 – 0Portugal 🇵🇹

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw · no betAway win fade +83.5%

🇭🇹 Haiti0 – 1Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win fade −100%

🇸🇳 Senegal5 – 0Iraq 🇮🇶

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw · no betAway win · no bet

🇸🇪 Sweden5 – 1Tunisia 🇹🇳

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win back −100%

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan1 – 3Colombia 🇨🇴

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win fade −100%

🇵🇾 Paraguay0 – 0Australia 🇦🇺

OursMarket

Home win fade +83.5%Draw fade −100%Away win back −100%

🇩🇿 Algeria3 – 3Austria 🇦🇹

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw fade −100%Away win fade +80.2%

🇪🇬 Egypt1 – 1Iran 🇮🇷

OursMarket

Home win fade +77%Draw fade −100%Away win back −100%

🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire1 – 0Ecuador 🇪🇨

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw fade +50.4%Away win back −100%

🇿🇦 South Africa1 – 0South Korea 🇰🇷

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw fade +38.9%Away win back −100%

🇬🇭 Ghana1 – 0Panama 🇵🇦

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw fade +37.9%Away win back −100%

🇯🇵 Japan1 – 1Sweden 🇸🇪

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw fade −100%Away win fade +37%

🇨🇿 Czechia1 – 1South Africa 🇿🇦

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw fade −100%Away win fade +29%

🇨🇦 Canada1 – 1Bosnia & Herzegovina 🇧🇦

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw fade −100%Away win fade +25.8%

🇮🇷 Iran2 – 2New Zealand 🇳🇿

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw fade −100%Away win fade +24.2%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England0 – 0Ghana 🇬🇭

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw fade −100%Away win fade +10.5%

🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina3 – 1Qatar 🇶🇦

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw · no betAway win back −100%

🇧🇷 Brazil3 – 0Haiti 🇭🇹

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw back −100%Away win · no bet

🇨🇩 DR Congo3 – 1Uzbekistan 🇺🇿

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw · no betAway win back −100%

🇨🇭 Switzerland2 – 1Canada 🇨🇦

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw · no betAway win back −100%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England4 – 2Croatia 🇭🇷

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw · no betAway win back −100%

🇪🇸 Spain4 – 0Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw back −100%Away win · no bet

🇫🇷 France3 – 0Iraq 🇮🇶

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw back −100%Away win · no bet

🇫🇷 France3 – 1Senegal 🇸🇳

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw · no betAway win back −100%

🇩🇪 Germany7 – 1Curaçao 🇨🇼

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw back −100%Away win · no bet

🇯🇴 Jordan1 – 3Argentina 🇦🇷

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw back −100%Away win fade −100%

🇳🇴 Norway3 – 2Senegal 🇸🇳

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw · no betAway win back −100%

🇳🇿 New Zealand1 – 5Belgium 🇧🇪

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw back −100%Away win fade −100%

🇵🇦 Panama0 – 2England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw back −100%Away win fade −100%

🇵🇦 Panama0 – 1Croatia 🇭🇷

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw · no betAway win fade −100%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland0 – 3Brazil 🇧🇷

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw back −100%Away win fade −100%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland0 – 1Morocco 🇲🇦

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw · no betAway win fade −100%

🇺🇸 USA2 – 0Australia 🇦🇺

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw · no betAway win back −100%

🇺🇸 USA4 – 1Paraguay 🇵🇾

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw · no betAway win back −100%

🇦🇹 Austria3 – 1Jordan 🇯🇴

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw back −100%Away win back −100%

🇮🇶 Iraq1 – 4Norway 🇳🇴

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw back −100%Away win fade −100%

🇯🇴 Jordan1 – 2Algeria 🇩🇿

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw back −100%Away win fade −100%

🇨🇼 Curaçao0 – 2Côte d'Ivoire 🇨🇮

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw back −100%Away win fade −100%

🇲🇦 Morocco4 – 2Haiti 🇭🇹

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw back −100%Away win back −100%

🇵🇹 Portugal5 – 0Uzbekistan 🇺🇿

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw back −100%Away win back −100%

Calibration: are the probabilities honest?

We split every forecast into 10 buckets by probability. In each bucket, the average probability we quoted (predicted) should land close to how often it actually happened (observed) — the closer the two, the more trustworthy the numbers.

0–10%predicted 6% · observed 0%

10–20%predicted 15% · observed 16%

20–30%predicted 24% · observed 25%

30–40%predicted 35% · observed 16%

40–50%predicted 43% · observed 62%

50–60%predicted 55% · observed 56%

60–70%predicted 65% · observed 77%

70–80%predicted 74% · observed 80%

80–90%predicted 84% · observed 33%

Small, high-variance sample — a single match can swing the P&L. Returns are percentages, not money.

Same basis as the knockout tab: Round-of-32, the 90-minute result (a draw counts as an outcome). Scored here is the published multi-calibrated blend, locked 2026-06-29.

Accuracy73%11 / 15 matches

Return+11.7%31 bets

Brier Skill Score+3.5%>0 beats the market

Calibration14.2%lower is better

When we bet: skip if our number is close to the market, bet only when the gap is wide.

back = bet it happens · fade = bet it won't · a win pays the market's odds, a loss is −100%.

Top 3 by return

Top = ours, bottom = the market at forecast time; bold = actual result. Win / draw / loss are bet independently.

🇦🇷 Argentina1 – 1Cape Verde 🇨🇻

OursMarket

Home win fade +545.2%Draw back +769.6%Away win back −100%

🇩🇪 Germany1 – 1Paraguay 🇵🇾

OursMarket

Home win fade +263.6%Draw back +440.5%Away win back −100%

🇧🇪 Belgium2 – 2Senegal 🇸🇳

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw back +239%Away win fade +37.9%

Show the other 12

🇦🇺 Australia1 – 1Egypt 🇪🇬

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw back +198.5%Away win · no bet

🇪🇸 Spain3 – 0Austria 🇦🇹

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw · no betAway win · no bet

🇳🇱 Netherlands1 – 1Morocco 🇲🇦

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw · no betAway win fade +37.9%

🇨🇭 Switzerland2 – 0Algeria 🇩🇿

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw back −100%Away win fade +30.7%

🇧🇷 Brazil2 – 1Japan 🇯🇵

OursMarket

Home win · no betDraw back −100%Away win · no bet

🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire1 – 2Norway 🇳🇴

OursMarket

Home win back −100%Draw · no betAway win fade −100%

🇲🇽 Mexico2 – 0Ecuador 🇪🇨

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw · no betAway win back −100%

🇵🇹 Portugal2 – 1Croatia 🇭🇷

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw back −100%Away win · no bet

🇨🇴 Colombia1 – 0Ghana 🇬🇭

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw back −100%Away win · no bet

🇫🇷 France3 – 0Sweden 🇸🇪

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw back −100%Away win back −100%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England2 – 1DR Congo 🇨🇩

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw back −100%Away win back −100%

🇺🇸 USA2 – 0Bosnia & Herzegovina 🇧🇦

OursMarket

Home win fade −100%Draw back −100%Away win back −100%

Calibration: are the probabilities honest?

0–10%predicted 7% · observed 0%

10–20%predicted 16% · observed 0%

20–30%predicted 26% · observed 10%

30–40%predicted 35% · observed 45%

40–50%predicted 45% · observed 57%

50–60%predicted 54% · observed 100%

60–70%predicted 64% · observed 67%

70–80%predicted 75% · observed 100%

Small, high-variance sample — a single match can swing the P&L. Returns are percentages, not money.