Predict RavenBelgium to win in 90 min, ~44%
The evidence
Belgium rate higher on form and results — 1894 vs 1860.
Belgium create more — 1.83 vs 1.60 expected goals a game.
Belgium give up less — 0.95 vs 1.49 expected goals against a game.
Dead level — Belgium and Senegal match up here.
Senegal press higher up the pitch more often — 6.2% vs 4.7% of play.
Senegal break faster on the counter — 1.4% vs 1.2% of play.
Belgium sit deeper to defend more — 17.4% vs 16.6% of play.
Dead level — Belgium and Senegal match up here.
How the nine models read it
Blending all 8 models and correcting for known group-stage biases, Belgium is the call here at about 44%.
Models’ consensus+19.6 pts → Belgium
Belgium are a slight favourite to beat Senegal (54.5% to win).
Attack vs defence+35.1 pts → Belgium
Belgium and Senegal look evenly matched, with no side meaningfully on top.
Attack vs defence+35.9 pts → Belgium
Belgium is the slight favourite — its game style matches up well against Senegal.
Overall quality+21.1 pts → Belgium
Belgium are clear favourites to beat Senegal, mostly on cleaner attacking play.
Breaking through the defence
Belgium is the clear favourite (69%) — its passing play is the harder one to break down.
Passing structure
Pulling every angle together, Belgium is narrowly the side to back here, at about a 49% chance to win.
Model agreement+25.1 pts → Belgium
Belgium are a slight favourite to beat Senegal, winning roughly 40 times out of 100 to Senegal's 34.
Chance-creation form+6.4 pts → Belgium
Belgium is a slight favourite here with about a 41% chance to win, partly because the other side ran a heavier physical load and is likelier to tire.
Physical load
Method
Market-blind: equal-weight linear (arithmetic) opinion pool of all 8 model views (seven base models + the stacked ensemble), then MCBoost multicalibration (alpha=0.15, 5 correction round(s)) learned on the group stage across overlapping style/strength subgroups, replayed on this fixture and bounded to within 12pp per outcome of the consensus, then a knockout 90-minute draw calibration (target ~31% draws, the 2022 Qatar knockout rate) lifting the draw on even ties. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.
Forecast locked 2026-06-29 — before any Round-of-32 match kicked off.
Market-blind: the eight model views are pooled into one consensus, then a light bias correction learned on the group stage is applied. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.