Predict RavenEngland to win in 90 min, ~58%
The evidence
England rate higher on form and results — 2024 vs 1652.
England create more — 2.07 vs 1.09 expected goals a game.
England give up less — 0.83 vs 1.38 expected goals against a game.
England keep the ball more — 54.9% vs 43.5% of the game.
England press higher up the pitch more often — 7.7% vs 4.5% of play.
DR Congo break faster on the counter — 1.9% vs 1.4% of play.
DR Congo sit deeper to defend more — 25.1% vs 16.9% of play.
England cover more ground at high speed — 6.4 km vs 5.5 km.
How the nine models read it
Blending all 8 models and correcting for known group-stage biases, England is the call here at about 58%.
Models’ consensus+28.5 pts → England
England are a clear favourite to beat DR Congo (67.1% to win).
Attack vs defence+57.6 pts → England
England are the clear favourite to beat DR Congo, winning roughly 73 times out of 100 to DR Congo's 9.
Chance-creation form+8.1 pts → England
England is clearly favoured, expected to generate the better scoring chances over 90 minutes.
Attack vs defence+39.9 pts → England
England is clearly the stronger side here with about a 72% chance to win, partly because the other side ran a heavier physical load and is likelier to tire.
Physical load−0.5 pts → DR Congo
England is the slight favourite — its game style matches up well against DR Congo.
Overall quality+26.7 pts → England
England are clear favourites to beat DR Congo, mostly on cleaner attacking play.
Breaking through the defence
England is the clear favourite (71%) — its passing play is the harder one to break down.
Passing structure
Pulling every angle together, England is narrowly the side to back here, at about a 49% chance to win.
Model agreement+25.6 pts → England
Method
Market-blind: equal-weight linear (arithmetic) opinion pool of all 8 model views (seven base models + the stacked ensemble), then MCBoost multicalibration (alpha=0.15, 5 correction round(s)) learned on the group stage across overlapping style/strength subgroups, replayed on this fixture and bounded to within 12pp per outcome of the consensus, then a knockout 90-minute draw calibration (target ~31% draws, the 2022 Qatar knockout rate) lifting the draw on even ties. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.
Forecast locked 2026-06-29 — before any Round-of-32 match kicked off.
Market-blind: the eight model views are pooled into one consensus, then a light bias correction learned on the group stage is applied. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.