Predict RavenArgentina to win in 90 min, ~64%
The evidence
Argentina rate higher on form and results — 2115 vs 1578.
Argentina create more — 2.22 vs 0.89 expected goals a game.
Argentina give up less — 0.63 vs 1.37 expected goals against a game.
Argentina keep the ball more — 51.7% vs 42.8% of the game.
Argentina press higher up the pitch more often — 4.7% vs 3.7% of play.
Cape Verde break faster on the counter — 1.7% vs 1.4% of play.
Cape Verde sit deeper to defend more — 32.2% vs 25.1% of play.
Cape Verde cover more ground at high speed — 5.0 km vs 4.5 km.
How the nine models read it
Blending all 8 models and correcting for known group-stage biases, Argentina is the call here at about 65%.
Models’ consensus+36.6 pts → Argentina
Argentina are a clear favourite to beat Cabo Verde (76% to win).
Attack vs defence+71.3 pts → Argentina
Argentina are the clear favourite to beat Cabo Verde, winning roughly 84 times out of 100 to Cabo Verde's 4.
Chance-creation form+12.0 pts → Argentina
Argentina is the favourite, expected to generate the better scoring chances over 90 minutes.
Attack vs defence+33.2 pts → Argentina
Argentina is clearly the stronger side here with about a 83% chance to win, partly because the other side ran a heavier physical load and is likelier to tire.
Physical load
Argentina is the clear favourite — its game style matches up well against Cabo Verde.
Overall quality+46.9 pts → Argentina
Argentina are clear favourites to beat Cabo Verde, mostly on cleaner attacking play.
Breaking through the defence
Argentina is the clear favourite (56%) — its passing play is the harder one to break down.
Passing structure
Pulling every angle together, Argentina is narrowly the side to back here, at about a 50% chance to win.
Model agreement+27.9 pts → Argentina
Method
Market-blind: equal-weight linear (arithmetic) opinion pool of all 8 model views (seven base models + the stacked ensemble), then MCBoost multicalibration (alpha=0.15, 5 correction round(s)) learned on the group stage across overlapping style/strength subgroups, replayed on this fixture and bounded to within 12pp per outcome of the consensus, then a knockout 90-minute draw calibration (target ~31% draws, the 2022 Qatar knockout rate) lifting the draw on even ties. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.
Forecast locked 2026-06-29 — before any Round-of-32 match kicked off.
Market-blind: the eight model views are pooled into one consensus, then a light bias correction learned on the group stage is applied. No betting or market-implied probabilities were used at any stage.